Vladimir Mitev, Mediapool, 11 February 2026
Table of contents
Summary
This summary captures the full scope of the interview with economist Aurelian Dochia regarding the diverging economic paths of Romania and Bulgaria, the impact of the 2026 Eurozone expansion, and Romania’s internal fiscal adjustments.
1. Bulgaria’s Eurozone Accession (January 1, 2026)
Aurelian Dochia congratulates Bulgaria on its entry into the Eurozone, viewing it as a move into the “core group” of the EU. While he does not expect immediate dramatic shifts, he anticipates long-term benefits in trade, foreign investment, and tourism. He notes that the Bulgarian economy has demonstrated decades of financial stability, providing a solid foundation for this transition.
2. The Divergent “Romanian Model”
Romania remains unable to join the Eurozone because it has failed to meet the Maastricht Treaty criteria—specifically regarding inflation and interest rates—almost every year since 2015. Dochia highlights a fundamental difference in strategy dating back to the late 1990s:
- Bulgaria’s Path: Opted for safety and stability through a Monetary Council, abandoning independent monetary policy. This resulted in lower risks but slower GDP convergence (currently at ~65% of the EU average).
- Romania’s Path: Maintained control over its monetary policy, choosing a riskier, consumption-based growth model. This led to faster growth (reaching ~80% of the EU average) but resulted in chronic imbalances.
3. Living “On Credit” and Budgetary Adjustments
Dochia asserts that “Romania has lived better than Bulgaria, but on credit.” The massive budget deficits necessitated the austerity measures and budgetary adjustments introduced by the Bolojan government.
- Austerity: While unpopular and politically costly, these measures are deemed essential to restore the balance between production and consumption.
- Economic Recovery: Following the adjustment phase, the government is moving toward a recovery plan focused on investment, European funds, and fiscal deregulation to stimulate the business environment without reigniting inflation.
4. Paradigm Shifts in the Development Model
The economist argues that Romania’s changing development model is not merely a result of the 2025 elections but a response to global shifts (the “fragmentation” of globalization). The current strategy emphasizes:
- Reducing dependence on international capital markets.
- Stimulating domestic Romanian capital.
- Attracting foreign investment specifically in innovative and high-tech sectors.
- Increasing national resilience across economic, financial, and military sectors.
5. The Dynamic Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB)
The BVB saw spectacular growth in 2025, driven by the listing of large state-owned energy companies like Hidroelectrica and a global market rally. Dochia notes that this is a “catch-up” phase. He clarifies that while the stock exchange offers higher returns, savings in banks are not “unproductive,” as they fund loans and bonds. However, the state’s high financing needs remain a major competitor for private investment capital.
6. Energy Leadership and Liberalization
Despite concerns over the 2025 elimination of domestic subsidies, Dochia is optimistic about Romania’s energy future:
- Regional Power: With Black Sea gas fields expected online in 2027 and a boom in renewable energy (wind, solar, and prosumers), Romania is positioned to be a regional energy leader.
- Price Outlook: He predicts that as the market stabilizes and new production capacities come online, increased competition will actually drive prices down for both households and industry.
7. Regional Relations and the Euro’s Practical Impact
Regardless of whether Romania joins the Eurozone soon, Dochia points out that most regional trade (including with Poland) is already denominated in euros. Bulgaria’s adoption of the currency will not fundamentally change trade mechanics but will simplify life for Romanian tourists. He believes the volume of trade between the two neighbors will continue to grow based on geographical proximity and economic complementarity.
Intro
Aurelian Dochia is a Romanian economist whose career has combined consulting activities for companies and institutions in Romania and for international financial institutions (World Bank, OECD, EBRD, and IMF) with leadership positions in the Romanian financial and banking system (member of the board of directors of BRD-Groupe Societe Generale and executive director of the investment banking division). In the early 1990s, Aurelian Dochia held government positions (President of the National Agency for Privatization) and was a member of Parliament (deputy in the Constituent Assembly 1990-1992). Before 1990, he was a researcher at the Institute of National Economy of the Romanian Academy, where he also obtained his doctorate. He has published numerous studies in specialist journals and articles in the press and is the author or co-author of several books.
Interview
Bulgaria’s accession to the eurozone
Mr. Dochia, how do you view the introduction of the euro in Bulgaria on 1 January 2026? What effects do you expect it to have on the region of Southeast Europe and Romanian-Bulgarian economic relations? What does this accession say about Bulgaria’s economy and finances?
I can only congratulate Bulgaria on this important step towards greater integration into the European Union. As part of the eurozone, Bulgaria is now a member of that core group of countries that are charting a possible European future that is increasingly integrated not only economically but also in terms of decision-making and policy. By switching to the euro in January 2026, Bulgaria is demonstrating its economic and financial stability, maintained over decades, and this solid foundation offers good prospects for its future development as a member of the eurozone. I do not believe that we will see any dramatic effects of this change in the short term, either in Bulgaria or in its relations with its close economic partners, but positive developments will gradually occur in terms of increased trade, growth in foreign investment, and tourism. Romanian-Bulgarian economic relations will also intensify in this context, and Romanian tourists in Bulgaria are among the first beneficiaries of the transition to the European currency in the country where so many spend their holidays.
Romania and the eurozone
Why is Romania not rushing to join the eurozone? To what extent does the Romanian model of consumption-based growth in recent years clash with eurozone membership (because strict control over eurozone finances could reduce consumption growth)? How does the export-oriented industrial sector view joining the eurozone—will it gain or lose from joining? Why has there not yet been a visible and committed coalition of businesses, decision-makers, and citizens in Romania interested in joining the eurozone?
Unfortunately, Romania has been and remains unable to consider switching to the euro for one very simple reason: with the exception of 2015 and 2016, Romania has never met the conditions set out in the Maastricht Treaty for adopting the euro. The insurmountable problem was the persistently high level of inflation and, implicitly, interest rates, which in Romania significantly exceeded the European reference level. It all started with how each of our countries responded to the economic and financial crisis of 1997: Bulgaria decided to abandon its own monetary policy by adopting the Monetary Council, while in Romania the National Bank continued to maintain control of monetary policy. As a result, the two economies have followed different growth trajectories: starting from a similar level of gross domestic product per capita, Romania has now reached 78-80% of the European Union average, while Bulgaria stands at around 65%.
However, if we consider economic stability indicators (budget deficit, trade deficit, public debt, inflation, exchange rate), Bulgaria is doing better than Romania and, for this reason, the risks of slippage and negative shocks are lower in Bulgaria. Romania has chosen the riskier path, Bulgaria the safer one.
Romania remains committed to adopting the single European currency. But everyone, from officials to the business community, realizes that at the moment any discussion on this topic is somewhat pointless because in the foreseeable future Romania cannot meet the technical criteria necessary for adopting the euro. Furthermore, the sweeping changes currently taking place in the European and global economy encourage the idea that maintaining control over monetary policy levers could help counteract negative external shocks. In addition, companies, businesses, and consumers have developed mechanisms to adapt to the more volatile economic environment in Romania: even though we often hear complaints about the high level of inflation or interest rates compared to those in the euro area, the proposed solution is to increase revenues, not to control spending and strengthen financial discipline. Many important transactions in Romania (real estate, cars, even phone subscriptions) are denominated in euros, even if they are paid in lei. It should be noted that the national currency has been surprisingly stable over the years in relation to the euro, contributing to a deceptive and dangerous sense of security and disinterest in currency risk.
Romania’s austerity
The Bolojan government declared in early February that the period of budgetary adjustment was over and that it would now move on to a period of economic recovery. This announcement came at a time when protests by education workers against austerity continue. How do you assess the effects of the austerity measures introduced by the Bolojan government on the country’s finances and economy and on the well-being of Romanians? Are we seeing a correction in the economy after a period of growth and expansion, or is this a deeper crisis? To what extent is the focus on business, deregulation, and encouraging and stimulating investment the right one for the Romanian economy and for Romanians?
The measures to adjust the budget deficit were absolutely necessary and urgent, but they are unpopular and politically costly because they involve stagnation or even a reduction in income for large sections of the population. The truth is that Romania, unlike Bulgaria, has lived better, but on credit! And such a situation cannot continue indefinitely; in the end, the debt must be paid. We are currently in this unpleasant situation where we are beginning to restore the balance between production and consumption, budget revenues and expenditures, imports and exports. The first results are visible in the figures for budget execution in 2025 and are encouraging. The second part of the rebalancing plan involves measures to stimulate economic growth, but this time the Romanian government must stimulate the economy without worsening the budget deficit and without causing inflationary pressures. The recently proposed measures, focused on investment, attracting European funds, and small fiscal and regulatory adjustments to improve the business environment, are, in my opinion, the most appropriate at this time. There is a chance that Romania’s economy will achieve higher growth in 2026 than that on which the budget is based, and that would, of course, be the best solution for overcoming the problems we face. But the risks remain very high due to the unpredictability of the international environment and the fragility of the ruling political coalition.
Changes to Romania’s economic model
What are the most significant changes in the Romanian economic model after the May 2025 presidential elections and the inauguration of the Bolojan government? What role do foreign direct investments in sectors such as the automotive industry, IT, etc. continue to play in this model?
In my opinion, the change in the development model is not a result of the presidential elections or the installation of a different political coalition in government. The development model is constantly changing and evolving as conditions change: Germany is forced to find a new development model, the European Union and its member states are looking for a new model, the United States is trying to impose a new model… In the world we are heading towards, many of the paradigms that have worked in recent decades will no longer be valid, and new rules and types of relationships are being established. Globalization and the interdependencies it has created are now viewed with caution, and the preeminence of national interests risks fragmenting the global economy. As a result of this paradigm shift and the technological revolution we are currently experiencing, development models are changing not only at the national level, but also at the level of economic sectors and even at the level of companies and firms. Romania must adapt to these changes, and the measures taken by the Bolojan government are moving in this direction: less dependence on international capital markets, stimulation of Romanian capital, foreign investment in key sectors with innovative technologies, and increased national resilience in all areas—economic, financial, political, and military. For Romania, European integration remains the best solution for increasing national resilience, even if, obviously, interests may diverge in some areas. Therefore, opportunism and flexibility, improving negotiating skills and rapid response to events are appropriate tools for Romania’s position within the European Union as a whole. The capacity of the Romanian political class will be severely tested.
The rise of the Bucharest Stock Exchange
The Bucharest Stock Exchange index has continued to rise over the last year. What is the significance of this trend? To what extent has the Romanian state managed to invigorate the stock exchange so that citizens’ savings do not remain unproductive in banks but feed economic activity in Romania? What are the results and effects of the Bucharest Stock Exchange’s dynamism on the Romanian economy?
The spectacular growth recorded by the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) is largely a recovery from a lag that was bound to happen. It was favored by the listing of several large state-owned companies in the energy industry (Hidroelectrica) and by the general optimism of the world’s stock exchanges, which in 2025 grew beyond expectations. There is still potential for growth; more and more private companies are becoming interested in raising capital on the stock exchange as a result of successful listings, which have increased issuers’ optimism about this method of financing. There are also more and more individual investors interested in this way of investing their savings, and there are Romanian and foreign institutional investors with significant resources who are ready to invest in companies with potential. The state’s financing needs are and will remain very high in the coming years and will be the main competitor for investment in companies listed on the BVB.
I would like to emphasize that the population’s savings do not remain unproductive even when placed in banks, as bank deposits are used to grant loans, purchase bonds, etc. The difference is the return, the higher gain (accompanied by higher risk) that an investor obtains when buying bonds or shares on the stock exchange compared to the interest on a bank deposit.
Romania’s energy sector
How do you assess the situation in the energy sector after the liberalization of electricity prices and the elimination of subsidies for domestic consumers, which took place in 2025 as part of the austerity packages? To what extent does the boom in prosumers, combined with the emergence of several energy companies (including on the stock market), create the conditions for Romania to become a force in the energy sector and cope with European reforms?
Romania has long had the ambition to establish itself as a force in the energy sector in Europe. The potential is there, as Romania is one of the few European countries that produces oil and natural gas and has a tradition in this field. In 2027, the gas fields discovered in the Black Sea are expected to come into operation, which will strengthen our country’s role not only in the energy sector but also in the chemical industry. There is also impressive development in the field of renewable energy, wind and solar, and in 2026 and 2027 significant production capacities using these technologies will be put into operation. Surprising is the explosive development of decentralized electricity production through solar panels installed by private individuals and companies, for their own consumption, but also to supply the grid. Progress is also being made in the field of energy storage (an essential element in order to fully benefit from renewable energies) as well as in transport infrastructure. If these plans are realized, Romania can indeed become a significant player in the energy field in the region and in Europe.
The liberalization of electricity and natural gas prices for domestic consumers is still causing concern, and I am convinced that in the spring we will hear plenty of complaints about bills. However, my opinion is that for most consumers, prices will fall, perhaps even significantly, as the market stabilizes and new production capacities come online. The fixed prices practiced in recent years have suppressed competition. As competition returns, prices will fall for both domestic and industrial consumers. If there were to be an abundance of relatively cheap energy, the prospects for industry and economic growth in general would improve considerably.
The economic ties in the region after Bulgaria’s accesssion to the eurozone
Romania, like Poland, has a large domestic market and a well-developed industrial sector, and its trade relations with Poland are much more advanced than Bulgaria’s. Can we expect Romania to orient itself more economically and politically towards countries outside the eurozone, given that it will not be adopting the single European currency any time soon? Or, on the contrary, is it possible that Bulgaria’s accession to the eurozone will create conditions for even closer alignment between the Romanian economy and those of the eurozone, where Western European countries dominate?
Trade between all European countries is overwhelmingly conducted in euros, with very few exceptions in national currencies. Whether importing goods from Poland or Bulgaria, a Romanian importer pays in euros, which they obtain through currency exchange from the bank they work with. Similarly, an exporter will collect the price of exported goods in euros, regardless of the country with which they have made the transaction.
For this reason, Bulgaria’s transition to the euro will not affect trade relations with Romania. Romanian tourists are the only ones who will benefit from no longer having to buy leva from currency exchange offices. Three factors determine the volume of trade between two countries such as Bulgaria and Romania: the size of their economies, the complementarity of their economic structures, and the geographical distance between them. I am convinced that trade relations between Romania and Bulgaria will continue to develop as their economies grow and they discover new complementarities that enhance the advantages of geographical proximity.
Photo: Aurelian Dochia (source: YouTube)
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