Ștefan Popescu: Romania needs a neighborhood policy

Ștefan Lică, Adevărul, April 19, 2026

Summary

Political analyst Ștefan Popescu examines the context of the eighth parliamentary election held in Bulgaria in the last five years, scheduled for April 19, 2026. Although polls indicate a victory for the “Progressive Bulgaria” party (led by Rumen Radev), followed by GERB-SDS and We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), the expert warns that, for Romania, the identity of the winner in Sofia is less relevant than Bucharest’s structural inability to manage an effective neighborhood policy.

1. The Absence of a Neighborhood Policy in Bucharest

Ștefan Popescu’s main argument is that Romanian-Bulgarian relations remain superficial not because of instability in Sofia, but because of “the obtuseness of the elites in Bucharest”.

• Lack of vision: Romania lacks a coherent strategy for its neighboring states, relying excessively on relations with major powers (the U.S., France, Germany).
• The Ukrainian exception: The only recent rapprochement with a neighbor (Ukraine) was not a Romanian initiative, but a move indirectly imposed by Western allies.
• Human resources: Although Romania has excellent career diplomats (citing the example of Ambassador Brândușa Predescu in Sofia), they cannot compensate for the lack of strategic direction from the center.

2. Lessons in internal consolidation and economic sovereignty

The analyst highlights a major contrast between how Western states protect their interests and Romania’s approach:

• Energy as a strategic pillar: While countries such as France have nationalized their energy companies (EDF) to ensure the industry’s competitiveness, Romania tends toward selling profitable state-owned companies.
• Investments and competitiveness: High energy prices in Romania discourage major investors. Furthermore, existing investments often boil down to assembly of components, without developing horizontal production or creating sustainable jobs.
• Economic diplomacy: Romania is described as “passive” and “uninterested” in attracting strategic capital, unlike Western leaders who actively seek global trade partnerships.

3. Regional pragmatism and economic realities

Popescu urges a pragmatic approach toward neighbors, beyond ideological criticism:

• Relations with Russia: The analyst notes that countries such as Hungary and Bulgaria are opting for pragmatic cooperation with Moscow, a model quietly followed even by some Western European states (France, Belgium). Romania should analyze these dynamics through the lens of its own interests.
• Economic interdependence: Bulgaria and Hungary represent strategic export markets for Romania. The massive tourist flow (one million Romanians in Bulgaria by 2025) compels any government in Sofia to a certain degree of openness, yet Bucharest is not capitalizing on this advantage.

4. Solutions for Breaking Out of Isolation

To stop being “nowhere,” Romania must adopt concrete measures for interconnection:

• Infrastructure and Energy: Developing the vertical corridor and road and rail connectivity with Bulgaria.
• Regional Formats: Creating strong local alliances, modeled after the Visegrad Group or the cooperation among the Baltic and Nordic states.
• The Axis with Turkey: Romania should draw closer to Turkey, the most important regional actor, noting that, at present, major trade flows pass through Serbia, bypassing Romanian territory.

Conclusion: Regardless of the outcome of the Bulgarian elections, bilateral relations will remain underdeveloped as long as the elites in Bucharest fail to make neighborhood policy a national priority, shifting from a reactive to a proactive and pragmatic stance.

Article

Bulgarians are voting on their future this Sunday, and the stakes are high, just as they are in Hungary. Political analyst Ștefan Popescu explains to “Adevărul” why Romanian-Bulgarian relations continue to suffer and what needs to be done.

Bulgaria is severely affected by acute political instability, which has led to seven governments coming and going in Sofia in recent years alone. On Sunday, April 19, the country south of the Danube will hold its eighth election in half a decade, and the stakes are high.

Former President Rumen Radev’s “Progressive Bulgaria” party leads in the polls in Bulgaria. The main rival is GERB-SDS, followed by “We Continue the Change—Democratic Bulgaria” (PP-DB) in third place, with DPS reportedly in fourth.

We lack a neighborhood policy

Romania, like all of Bulgaria’s neighboring countries, cannot remain indifferent to the future of this state. Nevertheless, bilateral relations between the two countries have generally been good regardless of who was in power in Bucharest and Sofia. Nevertheless, they have been rather superficial and have never reached their true potential, according to foreign policy analyst Ștefan Popescu. In an analysis for “Adevărul,” Ștefan Popescu explains why Romanian-Bulgarian relations are suffering, as well as what should be done, from his perspective.

“We don’t have a neighborhood policy, so anything can happen in Bulgaria. Anyone can come to power there, but nothing will change for us as long as we don’t have an adequate policy. It’s not so much a question of who is in Sofia or Budapest, but of who is in Bucharest, of who is in charge of our foreign policy. That is our big problem, not that X or Y comes to power in Bulgaria. On the other hand, we have good people in the Foreign Ministry, but they cannot resolve certain shortcomings on their own. We have people; we even have very good ambassadors. In Bulgaria, one of Romania’s best ambassadors is an admirable woman, Ms. Brândușa Predescu, whom I hope will continue, because she has done excellent work there and is respected, with an outstanding, exemplary career. So we do have people in certain areas—in other words, miracles do happen where we have the right people in the right place. The problem is that for many years, Romania’s foreign policy has lacked what is called a neighborhood policy: “It’s pointless for us to want certain people to go to the Bulgarians if we remain the same and continue to have no neighborly relationship with them,” says Ștefan Popescu.

Romanian elites don’t know how to relate to their neighbors

The only country with which Romania has attempted to develop a neighborhood policy—though not even on its own initiative—was Ukraine. In this case, Romania was indirectly compelled by its allies to strengthen ties with Kyiv and become more involved.

“I’m taking Ukraine out of the neighborhood policy because we treat it as ‘something else’; it doesn’t belong there—I wouldn’t include it in the neighborhood policy. That’s why I’m telling you: whoever is in Sofia, a new government matters very, very little,” Popescu adds.

The problem of the lack of a neighborhood policy is caused by the obtuseness of the elites in Bucharest, the expert believes. Because of this, Romania has been unable to capitalize on the potential of its relations with its neighbors. Romania has consistently relied on its relations with the United States, France, and Germany. However, the reality of recent years shows that it should have simultaneously developed stronger relationships and alliances with its neighbors as well.

“The level of engagement of our elites, especially during a crisis, must be with the elites in the neighborhood, in neighboring states. Because, as you can clearly see, there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the ability of the major powers to project their influence in certain areas. They can no longer cover them. Not even the United States—they are overwhelmed by crises. France, too, has its own problems, just like America, and Germany is no better off and must also prioritize certain areas. “And so, during a period of realignment and difficulty for the major powers in determining their direction and assuming control of certain areas, neighborhood policy must become a cornerstone alongside internal consolidation,” explains Ștefan Popescu.

What the major powers are doing, and what we don’t want to do

So far, however, none of the governments that have led Romania—including the current one—have done these things.

“We’re doing neither one nor the other. We’re not pursuing internal consolidation because I see a desire to weaken the large, profitable state-owned companies that are currently carrying out strategic projects worth billions of dollars. And we aren’t pursuing a neighborhood policy either. We’ve only tried to maintain good relations with the United States, France, and Germany. And it’s very good that we tried that, but we should have simultaneously focused on developing a neighborhood policy. Which we haven’t done at all,” Popescu adds.

Internal consolidation is another concept devoid of substance when it comes to Romania. Ștefan Popescu cites the example of France, which recognized the major challenges of the times and decided, like Germany, the U.S., and other Western nations, to focus on the essential elements underpinning the strategy of a self-respecting state that ensures its own security, including energy security.

“In Romania, we want to sell off state-owned energy companies that are profitable. In France, we’ve seen that EDF, on the contrary, was nationalized from 80% to 100% under French state control, because energy is the primary driver of competitiveness. Meanwhile, in Romania, there is talk of gigafactories, large power plants, and data centers—all of which are major energy consumers—including the revival of the defense industry. I want to say that all these projects are unfeasible, and we need only look at energy prices. Why would an investor come to Romania when energy prices are higher than in all neighboring countries? If we look at an investment map, I don’t really see major investments coming to Romania,” the analyst argues.

Many of the companies that do come to Romania focus on assembling components rather than actually manufacturing them here.

“It depends on whether we’re talking about assembling products or actual manufacturing—the production itself. If we import components from elsewhere, we’re not developing anything domestically. Romania needs to develop domestically. That means creating jobs. And yet layoffs are being announced everywhere. “Is anyone thinking about where those people will go?” he adds.

Why Romania Remains Underdeveloped

Western countries have chosen a different path than Romania, and in the face of the economic and energy crisis, they are seeking solutions, while Romania has remained stagnant and is slowly sinking. And the bad news is that Romania lacks economic diplomacy as well, in addition to its inability to develop close relations with its neighbors.

“In all countries—and not just there, but throughout the Western world—we can clearly see that the state acts as a planner. The state directs capital toward certain strategic directions. They are chasing after capital because it is no coincidence that in the last 3–4 months, the Prime Minister of Canada, the Prime Minister of Finland, the President of France, and the Spanish Prime Minister have all traveled to Beijing. Because they are seeking investments. Romania doesn’t even engage in economic diplomacy. It is uninterested in this as well,” the expert asserts.

While Rumen Radev’s party is the frontrunner in Bulgaria, Ștefan Popescu takes a cautious approach. In his view, Romania must be far more pragmatic and proactive regarding bilateral relations with its neighbors, and less reactive. In fact, regardless of whether Radev wins in Bulgaria or whether the opposition grouped around Asen Vasilev, from the “We Continue the Change” party, prevails, Romania will continue to have only to lose due to its inability to develop deeper relations with Sofia. Furthermore, the answer regarding the future of bilateral relations lies primarily in Bucharest, the expert concludes.

“As president, Radev has had, I would say, a constructive attitude toward Romania. But I avoid taking sides, for better or worse, including regarding Hungary in the recent case. Especially since we see that the new prime minister of Belgium and even France tend to take certain steps toward Russia, so I don’t know if we should criticize only Hungary or Bulgaria for choosing to engage in pragmatic cooperation with Russia. They choose this regardless of who is in power there, and now we’ve seen the statements by Péter Magyar, who said that Hungary will maintain pragmatic relations with Moscow. So I believe that Romania, in its relations with its neighbors, has certain structural foundations upon which we can build. And we cannot ignore the fact that Hungary is Romania’s second-largest export market, Romania is a strategic market for Hungary, and vice versa with Bulgaria. We must look at the structure of trade. At the million Romanians who visited Bulgaria in 2025. So whatever government is in Sofia will take this into account and will show a certain openness. But that’s not enough, as long as we remain passive,”, Popescu points out.

Solutions for developing relations with Bulgaria

In terms of the potential of bilateral relations with Bulgaria, Romania is currently falling short. Ștefan Popescu outlines the directions to follow.

“There is so much to do, and here I am referring in particular to the vertical corridor, energy cooperation, and the development of road and rail connectivity infrastructure. There is a great deal to be done together with Bulgaria. And, of course, Romania needs to create, alongside Bulgaria, a regional framework. Because we’re not part of anything”, are just a few of the solutions proposed by Popescu.

Meanwhile, the Baltic countries, the Nordic states, and Poland are developing various frameworks and cooperating in an exemplary manner. In the absence of original ideas, Romania should follow these examples, believes Ștefan Popescu.

“There is the Visegrad Group; there are all kinds of alliances. The countries of Northern Europe, needless to say, have developed a series of structures and collaborate admirably. We observe that Poland is seeking to shift its influence toward the Baltic region through integration and expansion into the countries of Northern Europe. Romania must create regional frameworks in the region where it can assert its influence, given that it is the largest country in Southeast Europe. Instead, nothing is happening. Undoubtedly, we should also look toward Turkey, because both countries have very good relations with Turkey—Hungary and Bulgaria as well. And, unfortunately, the flows go through Serbia and not through Romania. “The Bulgarians cooperate much more with Turkey and less with us, unfortunately,” adds Ștefan Popescu.

Photo: Bucharest (source: YouTube)

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