Ștefan Popescu, Gândul, September 10, 2025
Table of contents
Summary
- The Polish president’s visit to Finland highlights US support for a new NATO strategy focusing on Poland and Finland, sidelining Romania.
- Romania’s absence from key discussions on Ukraine signals its diminishing importance in US geopolitical strategies in the region.
- The US appears to be reallocating its focus from the Black Sea to the Baltic and Arctic regions, increasing Turkey’s role.
- Poland enhances its influence through strategic alliances, while Romania lags behind, failing to adapt to changing global dynamics.
- Without a proactive diplomatic approach, Romania risks permanent marginalization in regional security frameworks.
Intro
From Washington, where he was welcomed as the leader of an important country, the young Polish president Karol Nawrocki left for Finland after a brief stop in the Vatican. The news should provoke more than a few comments in Romania regarding the Polish president’s statements about Russia. It reveals the true significance of his presence in Helsinki: the fact that the United States is promoting a new regional architecture on NATO’s eastern flank, centered on the Polish-Finnish tandem, at the expense of Romanian interests in the Black Sea.
More seriously, even at the highest levels of power, these signals do not seem to have been fully understood. A recent episode is indicative. When asked why Romania had not been invited to participate in the limited formats on the Ukraine issue, alongside Poland and Finland, the Minister of Foreign Affairs stated on August 12 to Euronews Romania: “We have a form of representation through the European Commission (…) and through Mark Rutte, who speaks on behalf of NATO.”
She then added that “Romania must have a voice” even in “international formats that involve unpredictable selection,” and concluded: “Let’s focus on what is important.”
In a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, however, it is precisely these absences that are “important.” The consistent participation of Poland and Finland in small initiatives related to Ukraine—from the virtual summit with Donald Trump organized by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to the statement by the leaders of the “Coalition of the Willing” on the Alaska summit — is no diplomatic coincidence.
It is an expression of the integration of the two Baltic states into the new strategic vision promoted by Washington, to which Europeans are gradually aligning themselves. Although President Nicușor Dan made an official visit to Berlin shortly before the virtual summit organized by Chancellor Merz, Romania was omitted from this meeting on Ukraine issues related to the war in the Black Sea. Poland and Finland, however, were not. A subtle but eloquent signal.
Geostrategic realignment
The new strategic configuration promoted by the US administration, centered on the Poland-Finland tandem, is not based on personal considerations or ideological preferences. The choice of the tandem does not take into account either the political orientation of President Nawrocki or the passion of Finnish President Stab for golf, which attracts US President Donald Trump.
Rather, it reflects a preference for partners who are perceived as reliable in the long-term diplomatic process involving relations with Moscow. It is also a strategic repositioning that emphasizes openness to the Arctic region. From Washington’s point of view, the Baltic Sea region, with its extension to the frozen north, is becoming a privileged zone for strategic projection and physical separation of Germany from the Russian Federation.
In contrast, the Black Sea seems to be losing its importance, and the United States is sending increasingly clear signals that it intends to delegate its responsibilities in this area to Turkey. In this dynamic, Romania is facing a discreet but visible marginalization. For example, the choice of Turkey for the technical negotiations between Washington and Moscow was not neutral. For the Americans, this reflected a desire to go through a regional actor, a key NATO member, which maintains dialogue with Moscow, even if its positions sometimes conflict with Western interests.
The gradual withdrawal from Ukraine and the easing of American pressure in the Black Sea basin are creating structural problems in bilateral relations between Washington and Bucharest. In the absence of a creative diplomatic strategy and action, Romania risks a permanent downgrading of its status in the regional strategic architecture promoted by the US.
The example of Poland
The example of Poland should be studied in Bucharest beyond the slogans of common interests. Poland has managed to extend its influence beyond its immediate neighbourhood. It has invested in strategic relations with the Scandinavian countries, especially Norway. It initiated the “Warsaw Format”, a framework that brings together countries with observer status in the Arctic Council, thus providing itself with an additional tool for diplomatic and strategic projection.
In contrast, Romania seems to be guided by the principle: the world is changing, but we are not.
Photo: The old city of Wroclaw (source: Pixabay, CC0)
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