Georgi Markov, BNR, October 22, 2024
On October 20, 2024, Moldovan citizens voted in the first round of presidential elections and in a constitutional referendum to allow the country to join the EU. You can learn more about the results in this interview by Vladimir Mitev for BNR:
On October 22, 2024, Vladimir Mitev gave an analysis of the results of the two polls on the Bulgarian national radio station Horizon’s “Something More” show. According to him, Moldovan society has internal contradictions and divisions and is not only a territory for geopolitical wars. At the moment, it is difficult to predict the results of the second round of the presidential elections on November 3, 2024, because in the first round polling agencies made errors of about 15% for the results of some candidates, as well as for the results of the constitutional referendum itself. As for concerns that Russia could also disrupt the Romanian parliamentary and presidential elections to be held in November and December 2024, Vladimir Mitev emphasized that there are worries in Romanian society that Russia is jeopardizing the security architecture in our region. But, according to the views in Romania itself, all the leading candidates in Romania’s presidential elections are, in one form or another, people with whom Romania’s American partners could work. And one can hardly assume that anything will happen in Romania that would not have the approval of its NATO and EU partners.
The interview can be listened to with English-language subtitles here and its transcription is below:
Georgi Markov: In this program we turn our attention to one of the main topics of the last few days – the referendum in the Republic of Moldova, the results of which show that Moldovans accept their country’s membership of the European Union, and the vote for the election of the country’s president, where the current head of state, Maia Sandu, did not gather enough support in the first round and will run against her pro-Russian opponent, Alexander Stoianoglo.
We invited journalist Vadimir Mitev from the Romanian edition of Radio Bulgaria to comment on the issue. What do the results tell us, colleague Mitev?
Vladimir Mitev: Perhaps the result shows that there is a division in Moldovan society and we need to think carefully about what this division is. It is tempting to look at Moldovan public debates exclusively through a geopolitical prism – between West and East, as they are usually interpreted, but they can be linked to a purely Moldovan domestic political context.
Take for example the fact that President Maia Sandu so much associates Europe as a concept, as a reality with herself. Perhaps the idea of this association was for Maia Sandu to overflow support to herself because of the EU’s popularity. But if Sandu herself makes mistakes or is not viewed favorably by her compatriots, this could undermine the faith in and support for Europe (with which she claims to be docked – ed.)…
So the signs need to be read very carefully by those who are trying to associate Moldova and bring it closer to the European Union, because it is clear that it is a complex society that comes from a different historical path than the countries that are currently in the European Union, and change there would probably take longer.
How realistic is it for the current president, Maia Sandu, to win the elections? I draw inspiration for this question from the outcome of the referendum and also from the first comments of political analysts after the election results became clear.
Maia Sandu seems so far to have a good support from the first round, but it should be kept in mind that almost all the candidates who ran against her were Russophiles. That is, if in one form or another they manage to unite behind the personality of her opponent – Stoianoglo, this could create difficulties. But we should also bear in mind that, in fact, until now, literally until Sunday’s elections, we have been living with information from the polling agencies that turned out to be profoundly incorrect, because it had errors in the expectations of the 15% results.
So I think we don’t really know what is happening in Moldova and what attitudes are at the moment. I expect we will find that out come the second round.
In Romania, one of the highlights of the comments after the vote and the referendum in the Republic of Moldova is that there is a danger that Russia might interfere in the elections in Romania. Can we explain what these concerns are?
I note that Romanian society has traditionally been sensitive to Russia’s role in our region, which is actually quite serious. Before the start of the war in Ukraine, the Russian president wanted the withdrawal of NATO facilities from Bulgaria and Romania, as if there was some kind of request for something to happen in our countries.
And there was a scandal in the election campaign in Romania about the personality of Mircea Geoană. One of the leading investigative journalists in Romania, Attila Biro, published information that Mircea Geoană’s former campaign manager had close ties with a Russian businessman who also seemed to be a supporter of the official Russian version of the Crimea and so on. This is interesting because Mircea Geoană has in general an image of a man trusted by Western partners. He was the second man in NATO.
These doubts and uncertainties that reign in our region obviously have deep roots. They are complex things that perhaps require a more specific and complex explanation. From the conversations I have had with Romanians, I sense that there is indeed uncertainty among Romanian elites. However, I think that the security lobbies in Romania are influential, and Romania is a NATO outpost in general, so I cannot expect anything to happen in Romania that does not have the approval of Western partners. And if you look at the main candidates in the presidential elections, the view I hear about them in Romanian society is that the American partners can work with everybody.
I thank my colleague Vladimir Mitev. We now continue with an interview with Moldovan journalist Paula Erizanu, who analyzes the results of the first round of the presidential elections and the referendum on constitutional changes that would allow Moldova to become a member of the European Union. Paula Erizanu believes that these results were obtained after Russia’s interference in the elections, vote buying and disinformation.
Photo: A crossroad in the Republic of Moldova (source: Pixabay, CC0)
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