Melissa Dobrea, Adevărul, 3 November 2026
Table of contents
Summary
Following Iliana Yotova’s victory in the Bulgarian presidential runoff, journalist Vladimir Mitev analyzes in an interview for Adevărul the shifting political landscape, its implications for EU-Russia-Ukraine dynamics, and its impact on bilateral relations with Romania:
- Bulgarian Politics & Leadership: Yotova won with 57.6% against Andrei Gyurov (39.5%), though voter turnout plummeted to a historic low of 29.1%, reflecting voter apathy and a lack of substantive campaign debate. The victory effectively consolidates long-term power under President Rumen Radev, signaling that external actors must reckon with his administration at the helm.
- EU Policy, Russia, & the Black Sea: While Yotova maintains Bulgaria’s core European orientation, she advocates for de-escalating the Black Sea conflict and pursuing dialogue with Russia. Mitev notes that Sofia is unlikely to take unilateral or arrogant steps, instead waiting for broader Western European shifts toward Moscow while navigating ongoing economic losses from regional instability.
- Support for Ukraine: Bulgaria continues to align with European frameworks, though state-level military depot supplies have ceased (while commercial sales persist). Recent policy adjustments include softening language regarding Ukraine’s EU accession timeline (at the October 2026 European Council) and refusing financial contributions to the EU’s proposed €70 billion package, pointing to a pragmatic approach focused on national benefit.
- Bulgarian–Romanian Relations & Regional Security: Despite occasional political friction or media misinterpretations surrounding Radev’s rhetoric, shared economic and security challenges in the Black Sea make close cooperation vital. Mitev emphasizes that Bulgaria remains firmly anchored in the West, NATO, and the EU, meaning no threat exists between the two neighboring states, and both nations must foster deeper trust.
Interview
Iliana Yotova’s victory and Bulgarian politics
Adevărul: What led to Iliana Yotova’s victory? To what extent did support for her political programme matter, and to what extent did voters’ dissatisfaction with the current political class play a part?
Vladimir Mitev: In my view, the most revealing factor is, first and foremost, the voter turnout. Iliana Yotova won with 57.6 per cent, compared to 39.5 per cent for Andrei Gyurov. However, voter turnout was just 29.1 per cent, and in the first round it reached a historic low – below 23 per cent. This means that neither of the two candidates managed to inspire much enthusiasm beyond the core supporters of the parties backing them. The campaign lacked vision, plans and other proposals – and these were never discussed in the media. It was only a few days before the second round that a debate took place between the two.
Perhaps people knew that the outcome of these elections was a foregone conclusion. Perhaps elections are increasingly becoming a mere formality with very little substance, and Bulgarian society no longer engages in any discussion about the world or the future, but merely argues over whether its leader is weak or strong in relation to Russia. Be that as it may, the result of these elections is that Rumen Radev is taking full power in Bulgaria. So far everything suggests that his term of office will be a long one and will continue into the future. From now on, anyone with dealings with Bulgaria will have to acknowledge the reality that Rumen Radev is at the helm of the country.
EU-Russian and Bulgarian-Russian relations in Yotova’s term
Iliana Yotova supports maintaining Bulgaria’s European orientation, but also promotes closer relations with Russia. How do these two approaches fit together, and what stance do you think she will adopt regarding the European sanctions imposed on Moscow?
Until 2022, Western Europe had extensive economic cooperation with Russia, exemplified by the ‘Nord Stream’ gas pipeline and investments by German, French, Austrian and other European companies in Russia, and Bulgaria was part of these processes in which Western Europe and Russia collaborated. Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine has destroyed this economic order.
Now, Iliana Yotova argues that the conflict in the Black Sea – which has turned its waters into the most dangerous in the world for civilian vessels and their crews – must be de-escalated.
She expresses her desire to be part of a peace coalition that would engage in dialogue with Russia. She has not explained exactly how she intends to set in motion these processes that will reconcile Western Europe and Russia. But, at least in my view, as far as Russia is concerned, she will do only what Bulgaria’s Western European partners want and approve of. In other words, through her, Bulgaria is banking on a future scenario in which part of Western Europe will once again seek dialogue with Russia.
There are already some signs pointing in this direction. However, I do not see Bulgaria taking any arrogant or unjustified steps in this process. Bulgaria could only participate in this process as part of a broader trend towards the restoration of relations. I do not know whether it is known at this stage whether the conditions will be favourable for this, when they will arise, or how this reconciliation will be achieved. For the time being, we are seeing rather the opposite trend – the conflict in the Black Sea is intensifying, and Bulgaria (like Romania) is suffering significant economic losses. And it seems that it is not very clear what else could be done apart from the measures that the presidents of the two countries, their defence ministers, foreign ministers and chiefs of the general staff have already taken in October 2026.
Bulgaria’s support for Ukraine: what is changing
What changes might the new presidency bring to Bulgaria’s relationship with Ukraine? Can we expect a reduction in military and diplomatic support for Kyiv, or are there institutional and political constraints that would prevent such a change?
In my view, on the whole, Bulgaria continues to follow the European line on Ukraine. Military supplies from Bulgarian army depots have ceased, but commercial arms supplies continue unabated. In October 2026, however, there was indeed a noticeable weakening of Bulgaria’s commitment to Ukraine. Bulgaria and Hungary toned down the wording regarding Ukraine’s future accession to the EU, removing from the conclusions of the European Council summit of 15–16 October 2026 the phrase stating that this must take place ‘as soon as possible’. Furthermore, on 20 October 2026, Radev was quoted by the BTA news agency as saying that Bulgaria refuses to contribute financially to the additional €70 billion that the EU is considering sending to Ukraine.
So far, it appears that Bulgaria is abandoning or scaling back activities from which it derives no visible benefit. However, in its bilateral relations with Ukraine, there are various possibilities – for example, regarding cooperation in the energy sector (Rumen Radev discussed these issues with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ankara during the NATO summit on 8 July 2026).
Certain diplomatic activities are also taking place, in connection with which Bulgaria – and, specifically, Rumen Radev – have been consulted. One example of this is the visit to Sofia this autumn by the highly influential Ukrainian figure Kirilo Budanov, who, following his meeting with Radev, joined Zelensky’s delegation to the US for peace negotiations. In my view, Bulgaria is pursuing a pragmatic, rather than an ideologically driven, approach towards Ukraine, even though some of Rumen Radev’s and Iliana Iotova’s voters are sovereigntists. For the time being, Bulgaria is signing all joint documents on Ukraine at EU and UN level, although there have been some peculiar controversies in which Bulgarian politicians have verbally distanced themselves from the approval they gave to some of these documents. I expect – or at least hope – that where Sofia considers there to be a common interest, cooperation and support will continue, and it would be logical for this to be the case.
Relations with Romania and security in the Black Sea region
What does Iliana Yotova’s victory mean for Bulgaria’s relationship with Romania and for security in the Black Sea region? Could the new leadership change the priorities for regional cooperation within the EU and NATO?
Iliana Yotova has already been invited to Bucharest by the Romanian President, Nicușor Dan, who has expressed an interest in working with her.
An important consequence of Iliana Yotova’s victory for Romanian-Bulgarian relations is that Rumen Radev becomes Bulgaria’s undisputed leader for a period that may well be far from short. On the eve of the second round, a scandal erupted in the Romanian media in which a speech by Rumen Radev at the Sofia Economic Forum was interpreted as a display of hostility and an accusation against Romania, which undermined confidence in Romanian-Bulgarian relations. However, if we read or listen to this speech, we will see that Radev does not utter a single hostile remark towards Romanians. On the contrary, he displays a positive attitude towards his institutional partners in the Romanian state. The misinterpretation or incorrect translation of his words was probably linked to the presidential elections in Bulgaria.
I note that a section of the Romanian political elite does not accept Radev and views him as a new Orban. I hope that the hostility towards him will not lead to a mild form of cold war between the two countries. Personally, I believe that Romanians and Bulgarians have much to achieve together, and it is becoming increasingly necessary for us to learn to cooperate and trust one another. The common threat in the Black Sea also unites our two nations. In these circumstances, mistrust and hostility between us only play into the hands of our enemies.
However, I realise that, alongside my message that the political reality in Bulgaria must be acknowledged, this statement is equally valid the other way round. The reality in Romania must also be acknowledged to allow for a new approach to our relations. In the current climate, Bulgaria is all too often – and, in my view, not always justifiably – reduced solely to its pro-Russian current. The impression is created that the country is not part of NATO, the EU or the Schengen Area, and that it will not soon join the OECD either. But in fact, Bulgaria is a country firmly anchored in the West. And it can probably be understood not only through its ties with the other Slavic nations, but also through many other ties in which Bulgaria’s partners are also Romania’s partners.
As regards NATO’s and the EU’s priorities, I believe these are shaped by the partners to a far greater extent than Bulgaria and Romania could influence them on their own or together. It is important to me that Romanians bear in mind that, as both countries are members of NATO and the EU, no threat can arise from Bulgaria towards Romania. Our partners and the rules of these integrationist organisations ensure that no malicious plan can be carried out against another member. It is up to us to make the most of the opportunities offered by these organisations and to learn to work together, rather than spending our time fearing or suspecting one another.
Photo: Iliana Yotova announces her victory in the presence of Prime Minister Rumen Radev (left) and the future Vice-President Kiril Vâlcev (right) (source: YouTube)
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