The Ciucă-Ciolacu rule in Romania was broken by the sovereignists and the civil sector

Mira Ivanova, Nova TV, 26 November 2024

Interview of the host of the morning emission of Nova TV – Hello, Bulgaria – Mira Ivanova with‌‌‌ Vladimir Mitev about the results from the first round of the Romanian presidential elections. Vladimir explains what is the profile of each of the two candidates who go to the second round of the presidential elections. He also gives the context in which the elections took place – the existing discontent in Romanian society and the people’s need to vote against the system. Vladimir Mitev also discusses the existing sovereignist sentiments in Romanian society and how they are expected to play some role in the new mandate of Donald Trump in the White House. 

You can watch the interview with subtitles in English here and the transcription is below:

Mira Ivanova: We go to Romania now, where the independent candidate Calin Georgescu got the most votes in the first round of the presidential elections and is going to a run-off against the candidate of the Save Romania Union, Elena Lasconi. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who was considered the favourite, dropped out. I was very surprised by these results. Analysts and media comment that Georgescu is a man who is sceptical of NATO, a Putin admirer, an anti-vaxxer, a supporter of conspiracy theories. Could he become president or will the voters rather unite against him in the second round? Why didn’t the pollsters catch his influence?

We will talk to Vladimir Mitev – founder of the Bulgarian-Romanian blog The Friendship Bridge. Hello, Mr. Mitev!

Hello!

Tell us, please, who this man is. Is there an explanation for his performance? The pollsters gave him 4-5 times less than he got. What is the explanation?

First of all, the polling agencies have not been able to detect many things recently in Romania and even in Moldova, where there were also elections. That is to say, perhaps the agencies themselves need to improve their approach in some way as a methodology.

Something that is not said so much about Calin Georgescu, and I think it is important, is that he belonged to a club that is very influential and is a kind of society of the elite of the old elites in Romania. I am referring to the so-called Club of Rome, where, for example, apart from him, a prominent member is the head of the Central Bank of Romania, Mugur Isarescu, who is the longest-serving head of a central bank in the world, as well as Nicolae Ceausescu’s interpreter, Sergiu Celac. I think it is important to bear this in mind, because until now there has been a centre in Romanian politics that has been embodied by the alliance of the two major parties, the National Liberal Party and the Social Democratic Party. These two parties are the parties of transition, that is to say, they have many sins, corruption and so on. In these elections, we have seen that this centre has been attacked from two sides. On the one hand it was the sovereignists of George Simion and Calin Gergescu as their figures. In the case of Calin Georgescu, as I said, these are people who are older elites who, in the new times, are more oriented towards the national and the traditional in Romanian politics.

But there was also an attack from the so-called middle class and the NGO sector. The NGO sector in Romania is very influential. In fact, Elena Lasconi is a candidate who enjoys the support of the NGOs. And in the end, what they saw was that the mobilisation in these two countries, these two groups that had been isolated from power until now, allowed a model to be broken that seemed very stable and unshakable.

Excuse me! I return you to Georgescu personally. Is his result, in your opinion, an endorsement of his ideas? Or is it a protest vote? An unsystematic vote? An anti-systemic vote? I don’t know what else we can call it.

Yes. Personally, I think it is more the latter, insofar as there has been a lot of discontent in various groups in Romanian society and the diaspora in recent years, for example, against President Iohannis. He was also the embodiment of this model that I am talking about, this unification of the two major parties. This discontent was looking for an outlet. Calin Georgescu himself, in my opinion, is using some rhetoric that sounds a bit sectarian, and it is not very clear exactly what he wants to change, how he is going to achieve it and with what cadres.

Were you expecting such a development? Because this is what he is saying – he is sceptical about NATO, he is sceptical about aid to Ukraine. Are these sentiments present in Romanian society? Were they perceived, were they felt, or have they now somehow exploded in these elections through the support for a candidate who was not considered the favourite?

This is the sovereignist mood in Romania. Let me remind you that the deputy chairman of the sovereignist AUR party, Claudiu Târziu, made territorial claims against Ukraine some time ago. The region in question is the Northern Bukovina region, which has a Romanian-speaking population.

So this is a sentiment that somehow exists at some level in Romania. But it is important that, in the age of Trump, Romania has to adjust as a political system to what is happening in the world. Figuratively speaking to set itself with a view of the wind that will blow in the Trump era.

We know that the leader of Hungary has very good relations with Donald Trump. So I think that’s the explanation as to why this sentiment is bubbling up so much now. One explanation is that there is an objectively existing internal dissatisfaction with the incumbent political elite. And the other is that internationally some things are changing. And our countries, being dependent on the external context, also have to adjust.

Romania is looking for its Orban, is it? A person who can talk to Trump. Is that the idea?

I am not convinced that Romania is only looking for its Orban. There are different groups in Romania, as I said. The NGO sector is also quite influential.

There is a lot of foreign investment from Western Europe in Romania. The Romanian elite is Eurocentric in principle. There are many reasons why Romania, in my opinion, cannot pursue such an active sovereigntist policy.

But, as I said, these sovereigntist sentiments exist.

Yes. Do you have any expectations about what will happen on the ballot? What do you expect? How will Georgescu perform? Will he win the election? Can he really become president? Or do you expect that the opposing sentiments would unite in a vote against him in favor of Lasconi?

I personally would not like to make a prediction. Because we see for ourselves how even the polls don’t show an accurate result. That is, we have no way of guessing exactly what will happen.

I think that Romania is setting itself up for a new time in international relations and in regional relations. And the sovereignists will probably play some role in it. And we have to see what actually happens in the elections this Sunday, which are parliamentary elections. They will be one measure of whether there will be more sovereignist influence in politics. Because there we will see what support the parties that are sovereigntist will get. And whoever is president in the future, he must also govern with a parliament in which there is a majority.

For now, I see that in this traditional political system, the two major parties are reacting to the signal they received. Their leaders who have been discredited have resigned from the leadership of their respective parties. There were various investigations into their misdeeds.

In their place came leaders who had more credibility. I can point to Victor Negrescu, who is currently interim chairman of the Social Democratic Party. He is a person in whom Brussels has great confidence.

The other new leader is Ilie Bolojan, who is linked to the development of the city of Oradea. Ilie Bolojan’s party has already declared its support for Lasconi. That is to say, Romanian politics and Romanian parties are positioning themselves for these forthcoming elections.

Thank you, Mr Mitev. Yes, the parliamentary elections are this week. The presidential run-off is in another week.

We are following the events and the choices that Romania will make during them. We heard a conversation with Vladimir Mitev, journalist, founder of the Bulgarian-Romanian blog “The Friendship Bridge”. Thank you.

Photo: (source: YouTube)

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