Georgi Markov, Bulgarian National Radio, 13 July 2023
On 13 July 2023, the host of the 12+3 programme on Bulgarian National Radio’s Horizon programme, Georgi Markov, interviewed Prof. Antoaneta Dimitrova, a specialist in international politics at Leiden University, and Vladimir Mitev, editor of the Romanian section of Radio Bulgaria, about developments regarding Bulgaria and Romania’s Schengen accession. Prof. Antoaneta Dimitrova spoke about the legacy of the resigning Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, and what is expected to change in Dutch politics after his departure. She also looked at the Dutch attitude to Bulgaria’s Schengen accession and the desire in The Hague for a secure Schengen area and rule of law in Bulgaria. Vladimir Mitev spoke about Romania’s reactions after a European Parliament resolution of 12 July 2023 increased political pressure on Austria to lift the veto on Bulgaria and Romania on Schengen. According to Vladimir, Romanian elites remain reluctant to join Schengen, although the resolution gives hope for something better at European level.
We continue to talk about Bulgaria’s Schengen accession now on the show, but we’ve added a discussion about the political situation in the Netherlands. One of the countries, you know, that is still expressing concerns about Bulgaria and Romania joining the free movement area. Why the Netherlands? Because, you know, Mark Rutte, the country’s long-serving prime minister, has resigned and announced that he is even leaving politics. We’ll talk in the next few minutes about the impact that this withdrawal and resignation may have on Sofia and Bucharest’s expectations of joining Schengen by the end of this year and, of course, what’s going to happen domestically in the Netherlands. Professor Antoaneta Dimitrova, political scientist, specialist in EU politics and professor of political management at Leiden University, is with us in the Horizon studio. Hello and welcome.
Hello!
Professor Dimitrova. Let’s start with this question. From your point of view, how might Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s withdrawal affect Sofia and Bucharest’s expectations of joining the Schengen area by the end of this year, which is the intention. Could this interim government in the Netherlands, which, let’s tell listeners, is also led by Prime Minister Rutte, solve this problem?
Yes, this is a very interesting question indeed, to which we cannot have a definitive answer, because the interim government in the Netherlands has clear powers to deal only with, shall we say, dossiers that are ongoing and cannot be delayed in any way. It is quite clear that a number of major dossiers – things on the Dutch political agenda – will be delayed. They will not be decided by this interim government.And, on the other hand, the interim government is the same government of Mark Rutte, which until last week was officially a normal government. In other words, no other interim government is appointed in the Netherlands, and in that sense it is perfectly competent to continue all the normal actions and representations of the Netherlands in the Council of Ministers, where the decision on Schengen has to be taken.
There are two other elements that we must take into account. One is that, of course, the experts will have a say, especially the expert who deals with information systems, with border protection, who, as I understand it, has been invited to Bulgaria by the Bulgarian Prime Minister to see what the current situation is. But another element that we have to bear in mind is that the Netherlands is entering an election campaign. An early election campaign, in which everyone is tired and in which one thing is clear, and that is that the issue of migration and free movement around it will be a central issue, at least for Mark Rutte’s ruling party.In this respect, of course, Bulgaria could be extremely unlucky if this issue is activated during the election campaign.
But frankly, I don’t expect that. Most of the migration issues that led to the collapse of the coalition and the inability of this Rutte-led quadripartite coalition government to continue were related to migration from third countries in North Africa, from countries that the Netherlands considers countries from which there is no danger to migrants. These are not countries in conflict, in war, but large families arrive in the Netherlands regardless, and this was the problem that actually led to the Freedom Party’s inability to continue with its coalition partners.
With this resignation and this impending change in Dutch politics, a lot of analysts have noted that it is very possible that after the now final retirement of Prime Minister Mark Rutte, there will be a very serious change in the political landscape in the Netherlands. Is that so, Professor Dimitrova?
Of course, this has been a whole era in Dutch politics, as well as in European politics. Recently, we have begun to notice that he has also become the oldest dean of the Council of Ministers. Since 2010, this is the fourth cabinet led by Mark Rutte in various possible coalitions. His departure is therefore a real shock to much of the public and the political elite. He was not warned, let’s say, he was not sure he would not want to campaign for the next cabinet.What we can see is that not only Rutte is stepping down, but also the leaders of the big parties that were in coalition with him, as well as the small Christian party that was in the governing coalition, i.e. the Christian Democrats, D66 and the small Christian party – they are all changing leaders. So we have a generational change in Dutch politics, which will undoubtedly play a role.
On the other hand, if you look at voter attitudes, it’s unlikely to be such a big change, as most voters still prefer Rutte’s party. While he was in politics, the big question was who would govern with them. With the Freedom and Democracy Party. Now perhaps the other question is, who will lead the largest party?
The candidacy of Dilan Yeșilgöz-Zegerius, who is currently Minister of Justice, has already been submitted. Rutte is a very interesting candidate in many ways. But the other big interesting question is whether Rutte’s party, which will most likely come first or possibly second in the November elections, will be partnered by the new party that has emerged in the last year with the interesting name of the Citizens Farmers Movement. It won the provincial elections in March by a large margin and, in effect, ousted the traditionally dominant Christian Democrats in the province. And, in fact, the big intrigue will probably be whether these two parties have enough votes to form a coalition, which most commentators expect to be on the right side of the spectrum. Although on migration, the leader of the civil farmers’ movement, Carolina Plass, has displayed some, shall we say, more humane and flexible positions than Rutte’s party.
What legacy will the longest-serving Dutch prime minister leave to his next successor?
A very interesting legacy, first and foremost a series of unresolved crises. We have the crisis of the destruction of natural habitats as a result of intensive agriculture and the high amount of nitrogen, nitrogen compounds in the soil and water, which is extremely serious. The Netherlands has had some time to deal with this problem, but has been in breach of European legislation on pollution issues for some time. On the other hand, we have the compensation crisis for the inhabitants of Groningen and other northern provinces, where there has been major damage as a result of earthquakes caused by gas extraction. And, on the other hand, we have the issue of migrants and, more specifically, where they might be accommodated. As well as the housing crisis. All these problems are interlinked.So the big dissatisfaction at the moment in Dutch politics is that none of these crises will move until December. The doctor said that as far as, say, the war in Ukraine is concerned, they will continue to perform all the serious functions of the government, not just ministerial functions, but any necessary functions. And it is possible that if we go back to the Schengen issue and the accession of Bulgaria, we will fall under the heading of a foreign policy that needs to be completed.
And speaking of this accession, I have also commented with you on what became clear in yesterday’s resolution of the European Parliament, that there is a moment of discrimination regarding the future accession of Sofia and Bucharest.
For me, as an analyst, I would not say that the problem is discrimination. The problem is that the Netherlands, I’m not sure about Austria, has seen very clearly for a long time how the problems with the rule of law in Bulgaria, with the lack of convictions for major corruption and other scandals – for example, the problem with the laboratory at the border point with Turkey Kapitan Andreevo, directly creates problems and makes the Schengen area as a whole more vulnerable to any possible attacks on the intelligence system for border issues.
So, of course, purely on paper, Bulgaria has long met the technical requirements. This is known to everyone, including Dutch experts. But they understand very well that with a dysfunctional judiciary or a poorly functioning judiciary, let us say, these things change in Bulgaria, the Schengen area with its unified information systems creates a lot of opportunities for various criminal influences to get in, starting with illegal border crossings and ending with, let us say, Russian influences or other information influences getting into the Schengen information system, which is quite a serious matter. So, as some Bulgarian politicians say, if we were to complete in Bulgaria the tasks that need to be done in terms of the judicial system, I think that nobody would think of discriminating against Bulgaria.
Professor Dimitrova, I now propose that we hear with you what the reactions are in Romania to the resolution adopted by the European Parliament. Please take your headphones so that you and our listeners can hear the conversation that is about to take place. It is with my colleague Vladimir Mitev, from the Romanian section of Radio Bulgaria. Vladimir has been following the trials in Romania for years, and the political ones, of course. Hello.
Hello.
How can we sum up the reactions in Bucharest after this latest European Parliament resolution?
In Bucharest and in the Romanian press in general, a lot of attention has been paid to this resolution and especially to the fact that it was triggered by a Romanian petition launched by a Romanian energy and climate change NGO and chaired by Răzvan Nicolescu, former Minister of Energy.My feeling is that Romania feels in a somewhat stronger position, in the sense that the resolution clearly states that Austria is violating certain principles of the European Union, which was also written in Nicolescu’s own petition. And there is talk, as you said earlier, of discrimination against Bulgarians and Romanians, but also of compensation. In other words, this resolution now shows a clear political will, with more than 80% of MEPs voting in favour of it, that Austria should no longer be allowed to delay the accession of Bulgaria and Romania, that is to say Romania.
On the one hand, I think there is still some hope.But, to continue the reasoning, I think in Romania they continue to be very cautious in their enthusiasm for Schengen. They are much more reserved. It seems to me, rather than the opinions in the Bulgarian press, perhaps because last December, when the last vote was taken on accession, there was an enthusiasm in Romania that was not justified. Then it took a different turn. So-called sovereignist views about the EU developed as a reaction to Romania’s refusal to be accepted into Schengen. And perhaps that is why they are now very cautious in Romania. At least, this is the feeling I have.
So somehow the question of more optimism or more pessimism has now been answered, I take it?The Romanians are actively communicating with various forces in the European Union and I think, from what I have communicated with the Romanians, including earlier today, I had a discussion with Răzvan Nicolescu. The feeling is that this issue is also somewhat geopolitical. That is, it is a question of balance between West and East, in general between West and Russia. I would say and that’s why I have this balance. When there is a war between these two countries, it is complicated for a change.
Speaking of which, now there is a more optimistic feeling, how to say, it is probably purely political. Can we now expect there to be an increase in political activity on the Romanian side in terms of talks with both the Netherlands and Austria at this point?
Lately, the government in Romania has been led by the Social Democrat Marcel Ciolacu and there are already conflicts with the right wing of Romanian politics, with the people and forces that are in opposition. And there has been a scandal about old people’s homes, which has hit the government’s image hard. And it was linked precisely to this division in Romanian politics, which is probably the case in many other countries.But I was struck by the fact that Dacian Ciolos, a politician who is currently in opposition, but who has a strong connection with the European institutions – he is a former European Commissioner and was the president of the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament… He made a statement that if Marcel Ciolacu needs help in these conditions following this resolution, he should seek it and he will get it. I mean, so I can assume that this is a gesture or an opportunity to seek some interaction between different sectors in Romanian politics.
But I would say one more thing.It is important that this resolution and the petition related to it earlier were supported at European level by all Romanian MEPs, as well as by various MEPs and citizens of the European Union. Processes are not simply a matter of diplomacy and the Romanian Foreign Ministry or the nation state itself. There are already pan-European processes taking place and we need to take this into account as well.
That is the way it is. Thank you to my colleague Vladimir Mitev from the Romanian section of Radio Bulgaria. Vladimir has been following the processes of political life in Romania very closely for years. He and I have been trying to sketch how the politicians in Bucharest have reacted to yet another resolution. I listened to this conversation with Professor Antoaneta Dimitrova. So, Professor Dimitrova, what do you think can happen in Romania in terms of political dialogue? Vladi has already noted a few things, that this dialogue will go anyway…
But, so, on the one hand, the dialogue continues and it’s great that at different levels different organisations are involved, let’s say, in lobbying or presenting the reasons why Bulgaria, Romania should eventually join Schengen. But the problem is something else. We must not forget that the European Parliament is not involved in the decision-making process of the Council of Ministers. This is not the standard way of decision-making, where Parliament decides together with the ministers. So eventually we will end up with internal political processes in the Netherlands and Austria. And we must not forget that, however much discussion there is among citizens, among NGOs, however much rhetoric there is from the European Parliament, which, of course, we can only be glad is in favour of Bulgaria, in the end, the Netherlands is in a position to do exactly what Bulgaria has been doing for many years in terms of starting negotiations in North Macedonia. That is to say: “This is our position and we support it”, and nobody can do anything about it.
Perhaps the most interesting thing, which your colleague also mentioned, is that the dynamics can be unlocked by geopolitical considerations. That is, many of the Member States of the European Union understand that, from a geopolitical point of view, it is good for Bulgaria and Romania to become members of the Schengen area as soon as possible. And perhaps therein lies the key to a quick accession, let’s say a timely accession in December.Thank you very much! This was the opinion of Professor Antoaneta Dimitrova, political scientist, specialist in EU policies and professor of political management at Leiden University. Together with her we commented on how the current political situation in the Netherlands could influence, could soon influence, the future accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the Schengen area. We also heard the reactions from Bucharest, in a summary by our colleague Vladimir Mitev.
Photo: Bulgaria and Romania still await accession to the Schengen area (source: Wikipedia Commons, Rob984, CC BY-SA 4.0)
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