Georgi Markov, Horizon programme, Bulgarian National Radio, 29 August 2024
Georgi Markov, host of the Bulgarian National Radio’s Horizon programme, interviews Vladimir Mitev on current issues in Romanian politics:
– Victor Negrescu’s nomination as EU Commissioner;
– the current balance in public approval for political parties and presidential candidates ahead of the parliamentary and presidential elections at the end of the year;
– important issues for the Romanian voter;
– Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s bold claims that he expects to abolish U.S. visas for Romanian citizens and join the Schengen area with land borders by the end of 2024;
– the attitude of the Romanian state towards joining the euro area.
According to Vladimir Mitev, Victor Negrescu is a warm link between the European elites and the Social Democratic Party and enjoys the trust of both parties. But some Romanians wonder whether another person, especially a woman, could not have been nominated so that Negrescu did not lose his position as Vice-President of the European Parliament.
Vladimir predicts that economic issues and culture wars will play an important role in the presidential and parliamentary elections at the end of the year. He explained why there is still no decision on the cancellation of US visas for Romanians and why the Bulgarian media, which wrote that such a decision had been taken, had made a translation error or had manipulated their readers. As for Schengen full-rights membership, which Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu is promising, it does not seem to be on the EU’s agenda, and it probably has something to do with the search for a new security architecture in our region, part of which is the war in Ukraine. On the Romanian accession to the euro area, it should be known that the Romanian economic elites are not in a hurry and have different arguments why it should happen “at the right time” and not quickly and at any cost.
The interview’s recording can be followed below with automatically generated subtitles in English:
The deadline for EU member states to submit their nominations for new commissioners is running out. Most countries have already submitted their nominations. The rest have until 31 August to do so.
We will now talk about Romania’s nomination, where the process is also taking place against the backdrop of preparations for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, with our colleague from the Romanian section of Radio Bulgaria Vladimir Mitev. Romania has made its nomination for Commissioner at a complicated political moment ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in the country. Was this a difficult choice also because it was Victor Negrescu, who is also a vice-president of the European Parliament, who was chosen as a commissioner? Let us say who Victor Negrescu is in the political life of Romania!
Regarding Victor Negrescu, perhaps the most important thing to say is that he is a warm link between Brussels and the Social Democratic Party in Romania. In recent years, he has played an important role, standing mainly in Brussels, in rehabilitating the Social Democratic Party in European circles. Victor Negrescu has the confidence of leading figures in European social democratic circles and in European political circles in general.
Given that he is nominated to become a European Commissioner, he is parting with the post of Vice-President of the European Parliament. And in Romania itself, some people are asking whether this change is worth it, because the function of Vice-President of the European Parliament still has a certain influence. It was a success for Victor Negrescu. He was elected to this position.
Romania could have proposed another Commissioner so that it did not lose this position, which he took. But, in the end, he is clearly a key figure in this relationship between Brussels and Romania and, in particular, the Social Democratic Party. He has the confidence of both parties. In my view, that is the reason why he should be nominated.
Let us hope that the Romanian politicians will answer this question, which is a matter of public concern, because it is Victor Negrescu who has been preferred as a candidate for Commissioner.
Romania wants from the European Commission the most significant possible portfolio for the country and for its Commissioner. What are Bucharest’s preferences?
Let me remind you that in recent years, the Romanian Commissioner has dealt with issues relating to infrastructure or regional development. So Romania now has ambitions to have a portfolio that is in the economic field. After all, Romania, although a country from south-eastern Europe and with a certain peripheral position – for example, not a full member of Schengen and so on – has its ambitions at European level. Including Marcel Ciolacu, when presenting his desire for a portfolio related to the economy, said that Romania is the sixth largest country in the European Union and it deserves to have an influential European Commissioner.
We have already mentioned that this nomination is taking place against a background of, shall we say, more intense political activity in Romania, and the reason for this is the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in the country. They are scheduled for November and December respectively. We are now on the eve of September. Can we say what the electoral attitudes look like for these two elections?
Perhaps let’s see the situation ahead of the parliamentary elections first. The Social Democratic Party continues to lead, according to one of the latest opinion polls – by the polling agency CURS. The National Liberal Party, which is a coalition partner of the Social Democratic Party, has 23%. That is to say, these two parties together are the most influential. And there are already some weaker parties that have their presence but cannot threaten their power for now.
It is perhaps more interesting what the results of the presidential elections will be, insofar as Marcel Cioalcu, the current prime minister, announced literally a few days ago that he will be a candidate in them. And there are already polls that give him the lead. This is interesting because we have been expecting for a long time, and we are still expecting Mircea Geoană, who is an influential figure in NATO at the moment, to announce his candidacy. Many Romanians think that he, with his international contacts, should probably be the most suitable person to be president, insofar as he represents the country and should be trusted by partners and so on.
And what policies do Romanians expect from their future rulers? This is also a question that perhaps concerns these electoral attitudes that we are commenting on.
I think something important that concerns everybody is their income and the economic situation of the country. Since this year is a so-called super-election year, in which Romanians have all the possible choices they can have, Marcel Ciolacu and the government in general have given away a lot of money in various forms to various categories of citizens, and thus the budget deficit and debts have grown.
One of the intrigues next year, once this super-election year has passed and it has been decided who is going to govern again, is what is going to happen to the economic situation of the country, because at least some people are warning that this model, which is now supporting various categories of citizens, is not very sustainable financially and some kind of cuts will have to be introduced, perhaps.
The other intrigue, which seems to me to be important and which is relevant to our region and to Bulgaria, is that the culture wars are likely to have their significance. The fact is that in Romania many people are religious and this leads to the respective discourses that we also know with our country for and against LGBT communities or their rights or, in general, local interests versus global interests. So I expect similar rhetoric in terms of the end-of-year elections.
As Prime Minister, Marcel Ciolacu has promised his countrymen full membership of the Schengen area by the end of this year. Is this realistic, and can we add more information around this American announcement that the visa waiver is expected, perhaps by the end of the year, for Romanian citizens?
Let me first of all urge our fellow citizens, our media in general, to follow with some critical thought what is coming from Marcel Ciolacu, because he is, as I said, a presidential candidate. He has an interest in presenting things better than they are. He will be judged, perhaps, for his statements if they are not measured, but that will be clear in the case of Schengen by the end of the year and in the case of visas on 15 October 2024, the date on which he has announced that the American decision will become clear.
With regard to visas, it seems important to me to say that Romania is campaigning for the renewal of visas by Romanians who already have visas. Since refusals do not normally happen when you renew your visa, the idea is that, by an administrative trick, the number of refusals will be reduced so that Romania will fit in with this requirement that the US has made to allow Romanians to travel without a visa. Given that the Romanian Government’s own campaign, which also has the support of the US Ambassador in Bucharest, is going on until 30 September, I think it is still premature to believe that the US has a ready-made solution to this at the moment.
With regard to Schengen, I also think that a certain scepticism is healthy. We see that the subject has dropped off the agenda of European discussions. There are different topics that are more topical. For example, a new European Commission is now being formed. It seems to me that it has to be said that the situation around Schengen continues to be linked to geopolitics.
And is Bucharest’s membership of the euro area an achievable goal in the near future?
Given that Romania has such large budget deficits, inflation and generally economic indicators that do not currently meet the requirements for joining the euro area, it is obvious that the country itself has no ambitions to introduce the euro in the coming years. It should be borne in mind that the Romanian Central Bank, which is a quite influential institution, and its prominent representatives, in general, have a certain scepticism not about joining the euro area itself, as Romania has agreed to it in principle, but, according to them, the euro area itself will probably experience some reforms or changes. And they are not in a hurry to enter it in the current conditions. They want Romania to develop in the conditions that it is currently in. They insist on the freedom to influence their exchange rate against the euro. And they believe that Romania should not rush, but enter when it is most ready.
Until recently, it was argued that the standard of living of Romanians must also be raised before they enter the euro. A few years ago, economic experts were demanding that Romania achieve a per capita gross domestic product of 70% of the European level. It has already been met. Nevertheless, I do not see the Romanian media discussing and calling hard for the country to join the euro area.
But I should perhaps also say that Romanians as a people are interested in the fact that Bulgaria has ambitions to join the euro area. And, in fact, Romanians themselves are curious about the fact that there are also processes going on in Bulgaria that are perhaps bringing our country somewhat closer to the euro area.
Thank you for this conversation. Our interlocutor was Vladimir Mitev, a journalist from the Romanian section of Radio Bulgaria. With him, in the past few minutes, we have been commenting on Bucharest’s nomination for a future European Commissioner and the electoral attitudes among Romanians for the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled in November and December in the country.
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