Capabilities of the Bulgarian Armed Forces and their role in the new European security architecture

Bogdan Cozma, Karadeniz Press, May 27, 2025

The year 2022 marked a turning point for the entire European security architecture, being a rude awakening to the reality of a conventional war on the old continent, jeopardizing decades of peace-building efforts through the European project. In this new reality, NATO’s Eastern flank became one of the top priorities, with a special focus on Poland, the Baltic countries and Romania. However, Bulgaria and the role that its armed forces can play in this new security configuration have remained relatively in the shadows.

Indeed, Bulgaria is a relatively small state in the ‘second line’ of the Eastern flank. However, its active participation in NATO missions, including significant contributions in Afghanistan and Iraq (in total more than 1000 soldiers) have shown its commitment to the alliance’s objectives even in distant theaters of operations. And its involvement in KFOR in Kosovo underlines its role in maintaining stability on the Balkan peninsula. Moreover, its position as a Black Sea littoral state, its hosting of a NATO rapid response force and its extensive industrial capacity for munitions production give it significant potential in supporting the new European security architecture. This role has also been recognized by the U.S. Black Sea Security Act, passed by the U.S. Senate, which explicitly mentions Bulgaria as an important NATO ally in the Black Sea region. The Act supports increased US assistance to Bulgaria (and Romania and Turkey) to strengthen defense capabilities, counter Russian influence and improve regional security. It also encourages closer cooperation among allied countries in the Black Sea area through joint exercises, modernization of military infrastructure, and information sharing to maintain stability and protect economic and security interests.

Also worth mentioning is Bulgaria’s defense cooperation with the European Union, a complementary dimension to the transatlantic one. Bulgaria is an active participant in Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), an initiative launched by the EU in 2017, through which member states work together to develop common military capabilities and increase interoperability. The projects Bulgaria is involved in cover areas such as training, military mobility and technological research. Bulgaria also participated in the EU peacekeeping mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In doing so, Bulgaria has a list of important objectives to fulfill:

• First, the country hosts important NATO bases, such as the Novo Selo Training Center and the Bezmer Air Base, which serve for both joint exercises and the rapid movement of forces. These bases are key operational points that increase the speed of reaction in the event of conflict. Another priority directly linked to the regional context is support to Ukraine. As a Black Sea littoral state, Bulgaria is deeply affected by the war in Ukraine and has an interest in contributing to the European effort to support Kiev.
• Also by its very nature as a Black Sea littoral state, the Bulgarian Navy, although relatively modest in size, contributes significantly to NATO patrols in the Black Sea, maintaining a constant presence against Russian aggression. Cooperation with allies such as Romania and Turkey was boosted in 2024 with the signing of the MCM Black Sea Memorandum, a trilateral initiative aimed at de-mining territorial waters affected by floating mines in the area of the Ukrainian conflict. The group uses specialized vessels, drones and helicopters to neutralize these risks. On the air level, Bulgaria also actively participates in NATO’s air policing missions, monitoring the alliance’s airspace and intercepting any possible unauthorized incursions. These air and maritime missions are extremely important not only to protect NATO’s borders but also send a clear message of deterrence.
• Added to this list is the fight against hybrid threats that require substantial resources and strategies adapted to the realities of the 21st century, from defending against cyber-attacks to countering non-conventional tactics specific to modern warfare.

To assess Bulgaria’s ability to meet these goals and even to expand its contribution we need to look at the current state of its military as well as its long-term modernization plans.

Current Structure and Prospects for Modernization

Upon joining NATO, Bulgaria has made efforts to modernize and integrate its military to NATO standards in a similar way to Romania. Compulsory military conscription was abolished in 2008, leading to a professional army currently numbering 37,000 active soldiers and 3,000 reservists.

Most of the military technology used by the Bulgarian armed forces is of Soviet origin to a greater extent than in Poland or Romania, however there has been notable progress in modernization, particularly in the air force where Bulgaria has opted to purchase a squadron (16 planes) of new F-16s to the latest standard (Block 70) for $2.5 billion to be delivered by the end of 2027. On the other side is the Bulgarian Navy which has benefited the least from modernization programs and still requires significant investments.

To face these challenges, Bulgaria adopted in 2021 a long-term strategy entitled “Programme 2032” (similar to Romania’s “Army 2040”) aiming to modernize the Bulgarian Navy. The strategy identifies the Black Sea region as well as the Western Balkans region as areas of conflict and instability. It also highlights the dangers deriving from new technologies such as AI and cyber-physical attacks as well as hybrid techniques to destabilize the country. These considerations, according to the document, will shape Bulgaria’s long-term defense strategy. The main strategic objectives that “Programme 2032” sets are:

• Modernization of defense capabilities and the establishment of a mechanized heavy infantry brigade.
• Improve NATO interoperability.
• Eliminate dependence on Russia for maintenance of military equipment.
• Strengthen bilateral and regional partnerships, especially with the United States.
• Ensuring a defense budget of at least 2% per year in the long term.

Also as part of this strategy, increase the number of soldiers to a minimum of 43,000 and will conduct procurement for modernization of each weapon category as follows:

The Air Force is focused on integrating new multi-role fighter jets, training new F-16 pilots, acquiring 3D radars, drones and IRIS-T SLM anti-aircraft IRIS-T SLM systems to replace the Soviet S-200 and S-300 systems.

With the finalization of the signing of contracts for the purchase of the F-16 squadron, the Land Forces are enjoying increased attention. Thus, the Bulgarian Parliament has approved a contract for the purchase of 183 Stryker armored vehicles, which will replace the old Soviet BTR-60 and BMP-1 models, with deliveries scheduled between 2025 and 2028. In addition, 44 T-72 tanks will be upgraded with state-of-the-art optics, advanced firing systems and enhanced protection. In addition to these, Bulgaria plans to purchase 155mm CAESAR 155mm self-propelled guns from France

The naval forces have several acquisitions in the pipeline to meet the new challenges in the Black Sea. First, they have signed a contract with the German company NVL Group to build two modular multifunctional patrol vessels equipped with modern weapons and sensors. The first vessel is scheduled to be delivered by the end of 2025 and the second by early 2027. In addition, Bulgaria plans to acquire new mobile anti-ship missile systems on shore to strengthen its coastal defenses.

And on cybersecurity, it plans to invest in a robust security infrastructure, interoperability of IT systems and strengthening command and control systems. In this regard, In September 2023, Bulgaria inaugurated a Cyber Defense Center in Sofia, a $12 million project funded by the United States. This facility provides hands-on cyber education and training for Bulgarian military personnel to prevent and defend against cyber threats.

Defense industry

Bulgaria has a significant munitions manufacturing industry, which surpasses Romania’s in size, with companies such as Arsenal, Terem, VMZ Sopot and Kintex among the main Bulgarian manufacturers. This is a result of Bulgaria’s communist past and membership of the Warsaw Pact, under which Bulgaria was designated as a specialized producer of munitions and light weapons. The country had the responsibility to supply arms and ammunition not only for its own armed forces, but also as export products and logistical support for other Warsaw Pact member countries and their allies in other parts of the globe (Cuba, Libya, Syria, etc.)

Similar to the other Warsaw Pact countries, the collapse of the communist regime in 1989 and the liberalization of the economy caused a shock for the defence industry. The loss of traditional markets and the government’s inability to manage the crisis turned state-owned factories into ruins and led to mass layoffs. Bulgaria’s accession to NATO in 2004 was a long-awaited breather for the defense industry. The alliance pushed for the modernization of armed forces and equipment, and Sofia earmarked funds to replace Soviet technology, but the big chance for the industry was the Arab Spring and the wars that followed.

The escalation of conflicts in Syria, Libya and Yemen generated unprecedented demand for Soviet-compatible munitions and turned Bulgaria into a key supplier to the Middle East, allowing the industry to revitalize.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 amplified this trend Bulgaria’s arms exports exploded and the country once again found itself in the position of being an extremely important player in the munitions market. However, unlike the previous geopolitical crisis, the 2022 conflict has put Bulgaria in a more delicate position due to internal tensions.

For political reasons, Bulgaria’s military aid to Ukraine was provided indirectly, especially in the first months of the war. Bulgarian arms initially reached the front line via other states, which served as transit points. Poland and Romania played an important role in facilitating this process, becoming the main gateways for ammunition and military equipment sent to Ukraine.

According to data from 2023, Bulgarian arms factories and traders had a turnover of over €3 billion, making Bulgaria one of the largest arms producers in the EU. While the Bulgarian government does not provide clear details about what it is sending, it is known that a significant part of it consists of ammunition and missiles for the S-300 anti-aircraft systems used by Ukraine. Bulgaria’s strategic advantage stems from its historical experience in Soviet arms production, which it is now supplementing with modernization efforts. Its factories have begun to adopt NATO standards, producing, for example, 155mm howitzers compatible with Western guns.

In the context of the European Union’s efforts to strengthen its strategic autonomy and boost EU-wide military production, Bulgaria aims to use European funds to reinvigorate its defense industry. In March 2024, the European Commission approved funding for a project of the Bulgarian Ministry of Economy and Industry to develop a National Industrial Strategy to modernize the industrial infrastructure and integrate defence production into a more competitive ecosystem. Bulgaria also participates actively in European initiatives on joint arms procurement and in the ASAP (Ammunition Production Assistance Act) program, through which the EU allocates funds to increase the production of ammunition and missiles. The Bulgarian government has also advocated redirecting unspent post-pandemic recovery funds to strengthening defense capabilities. The modernization of the Bulgarian military has the potential to have a positive effect on the Bulgarian economy, potentially stimulating growth and increasing the country’s export capacity in the defence sector.

Challenges and controversies

Although Bulgaria’s Armed Forces have been revitalized through investment and integration into NATO structures, they still face a number of challenges that reflect the complexities of a transition from the Soviet legacy to modern NATO standards. Underlying these challenges are political and economic constraints, amplified by a volatile regional context.

First and foremost, the Bulgarian military faces dependence on Soviet hardware, a legacy which, while giving them a strategic advantage in the short term, is a hindrance in the medium and long term. Obsolete tanks, MiG-29 jets (to be replaced by F-16s), radars and anti-aircraft systems, all in urgent need of modernization. But the problem is not just old equipment. After February 24, 2022, the supply and maintenance chains that relied on the support of Russian and Ukrainian firms suddenly became inaccessible. Even when spare parts can be procured from Eastern European allies (Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic), the costs have to be covered from funds that could otherwise have been directed to new purchases. Worse, the use of Soviet technology reduces interoperability with other NATO states, creating logistical complications that are difficult to manage. Although Bulgaria has started several programs to address this vulnerability, the estimated deadline of 2032 risks being too far off, necessitating an acceleration of the process.

Speeding up modernization would bring to the fore another equally serious challenge: the lack of qualified staff. This was underlined by Petar Cholakov, representative of the Bulgarian Defense Industry Association, in a recent article published by Novinite news agency. An eloquent example is the case of the Bulgarian Air Force, which is facing major difficulties in assimilating the new F-16 airplanes due to a shortage of trained pilots. The tragedy in September 2024, which led to the death of two instructors, has triggered a wave of criticism over the poor conditions in which Bulgarian pilots are forced to train.

One of the main factors behind the crisis is Bulgaria’s demographic collapse. With one of the fastest population declines in Europe, the country is seeing a dramatic drop in the number of citizens of military age. Thousands of young Bulgarians emigrate every year in search of higher salaries and better opportunities in Western Europe, while others stay at home but see no attraction in a military career. The result is a much reduced pool of potential recruits, especially for specialized or technical roles, which are crucial in a modern army. This situation has also been aggravated by structural changes within the military itself. In 2008 Bulgaria abolished compulsory conscription and moved to a fully professional, volunteer-based army. While this was in line with NATO standards and reflected wider democratic reforms, it also eliminated a steady and predictable flow of new personnel. The volunteer-based model has not proved capable of filling the ranks at the scale needed, and many posts remain vacant – especially in land forces, logistic support units and forward technical roles.

The situation is further exacerbated by a lack of financial incentives, with the armed forces often finding it difficult to compete with private sector recruitment offers, particularly in areas such as engineering or cyber security, where salaries are higher and risks lower. This economic imbalance, coupled with difficult working conditions, outdated infrastructure and limited opportunities for advancement, makes the military seem unattractive to many young professionals. The problem of retention is equally serious: even those who enlist tend to drop out early, disillusioned by insufficient support for families, low morale in the units and lack of long-term prospects.

The political influence of pro-Russian groups is a systemic obstacle. The Revival party, which holds about 15% of seats in parliament, has repeatedly blocked initiatives on military cooperation with NATO, including equipment transfers to Ukraine. In March 2024, the party tabled a bill in parliament demanding Bulgaria’s exit from NATO, arguing that the alliance undermines Bulgaria’s sovereignty and forces the country to serve foreign interests. These actions not only undermined the effectiveness of military support, but also risked disrupting allies’ confidence in Bulgaria’s commitment to NATO’s goals.

The political instability that Bulgaria has experienced may amplify the risk of corruption, especially in the procurement of military equipment. The consequences could be serious: over-estimated costs, sub-optimal project choices and, ultimately, a military with diminished operational capability.

Conclusion

Bulgaria has a much more important role in the new European security architecture than might at first sight appear from the size of its armed forces alone. Thanks to its strategic position on the Black Sea and constant investments through the “Program 2032”, it can become a key element in strengthening NATO’s eastern flank. Bulgaria’s defense industry is also a major asset, providing essential ammunition and equipment to allies, including Ukraine.

By capitalizing on this strategic position, Bulgaria can contribute to maintaining the balance of forces in the Black Sea region, aiming to strengthen its cooperation with Turkey and Romania, as well as its bilateral relations with the United States and other NATO countries. In this way, it can ensure lasting support for European and transatlantic efforts to deter future aggression and maintain peace on the continent.

Of course, success depends on how Sofia will handle domestic challenges. Modernizing the military, attracting skilled personnel and overcoming political instability are essential steps to turn ambitious plans into reality. If it manages to combine investment in technology and make effective use of the funds made available by the European Union for rearmament, Bulgaria will not only strengthen its position in NATO, but also become a factor of stability in the region, a missing piece in the European security puzzle.

Photo: Bulgarian tank during military exercise (source: YouTube)

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